■ The Institute of Supply Chain Management’s December 2008 new manufacturing orders index at 23.1 percent was the lowest monthly reading in the 61 years of the index, beating June 1980’s 24. 2 percent. While the 49.2 percent reading of June 2009 almost equals the 49.3 of June 2008 and followed two months in a row with monthly year-over-year readings surpassing 2008 results; it is still down 1.9 percentage points from May 2009.

ISM monthly U.S. new manufacturing orders index

ISM notes the new orders index above 48. 8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

10%

■ Monthly year-over-year percent change in Cass Freight Index for freight expenditures. FREIGHT EXPENDITURES

The 29. 4 percent year-over-year decline was a record, but the expenditures index grew on a month-to-month basis in June for the second consecutive month.

5%

50%

0%

40%

2007 2008 2009

–5%

30%

–10%

20% Dec. Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug. July June May April March Feb. Jan.

–15%

–25%

■ Prior to the March 2009 ISM monthly U.S. manufacturing inventories index at 32. 2 percent, the alltime low for this index was 35. 6 percent in March 1952. Further inventory reductions in June 2009 set a new record at 30. 8 percent, while declining 2.1 percentage points from May results.

ISM monthly U.S. manufacturing inventories index

ISM notes an inventories index greater than 42. 6 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

–20%

Month-over-month Year-over-year

50%

–30%

10/08

12/08

11/08

6/08

4/09

9/08

8/08

5/09

3/09

2/09

7/08

1/09

6/09

45%

40%

2007 2008 2009

35%

30% Dec. Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug. July June May April March Feb. Jan.

15%

■ Monthly year-over-year percent change in Cass Freight Index for freight shipments.

FREIGHT SHIPMENTS

The shipments index grew on a month-to-month basis in June for the second straight month and was up 6. 3 percent from April.

Month-over-month Year-over-year

10%

■ Following nine consecutive months in contraction, the ISM monthly production index at 52. 5 percent was the highest since January 2008. In the sixth month in uptick since the December nadir of 26. 3 percent, June surpassed June 2008 results, and increased 12.1 percentage points in the last two months. The index now indicates growth.

5%

70% ISM monthly manufacturing production index ISM notes an index beyond 50. 4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Industrial Production statistics of the Federal Reserve Board.

0%

–5%

60%

–10%

50%

–15%

40%

–20%

2007 2008 2009

30%

Source: Institute of Supply Management, ‘Manufacturing Report on Business’, www.ism.ws

20% Dec. Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug. July June May April March Feb. Jan.

6/08

7/08

8/08

9/08

10/08

11/08

12/08

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

–25%

6/09